Liz Cheney’s Chances vs. Donald Trump of Winning 2024 GOP Primary

If Donald Trump and Wyoming Representative Liz Cheney decide to compete for president in 2024, it would be extremely difficult for Liz Cheney to defeat him for the GOP nomination, according to polls and betting odds.

Cheney recently admitted in an interview with ABC that she might run for president in 2024 in an effort to keep her old foe Trump out of the White House.

Cheney, one of two Republicans serving on the House Select Committee looking into the attack on January 6, said she hasn’t “made a decision” regarding a 2024 presidential run.

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“It’s clear that my re-election is my top priority. I’m quite focused on the committee for January 6; “She spoke. “I give my current job my full attention, and I’m quite focused on it. And later, I’ll decide what to do with ’24.”

“But I think about it less in terms of a decision about running for office and more in terms of how to make sure that I’m doing everything I can to do the right thing, to do what I know is right for the country, and to protect our Constitution as an American—and as someone who’s in a position of public trust now?”

Even though the election is still more than two years away, Cheney is currently only given a slim chance of winning the nomination. Trump has long expressed a desire to have Cheney removed from office.

Approximately 53 percent of GOP voters said they would support Trump for the nomination, according to a recent Morning Consult poll conducted between June 24-26. Florida Governor Ron DeSantis came in second with 22 percent of the vote, and former vice president Mike Pence came in third with 8% of the vote.

In contrast, Cheney was one of several prospective contenders, including Senators Ted Cruz and Mitt Romney and Governor Nikki Haley of South Carolina, who failed to win even three percent of Republican voters’ support.

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Cheney is not currently listed as a likely contender for the position of the next Republican presidential nominee on other websites, such as the betting exchange Smarkets. Cheney does, however, appear on Smarkets’ extended list of prospective 2024 election victors, where she is given odds of 200/1 and a 0.33 percent probability of success.

Currently, Joe Biden is in third place with a 14 percent chance of winning the election, closely followed by Trump and DeSantis. Smarkets rates both candidates as having a 20 percent chance of winning the presidency.

A compilation of national polls conducted since November 2021 by Polling USA shows that, should he run, Trump is by far the frontrunner to win the GOP nomination. His average polling score as of June 16 was 55.3 percent, DeSantis was second with 19.3 percent, and Pence was third with 12.5 percent.

Cheney must prevail in her own GOP primary before she can even think about a presidential run and a potential clash with Trump.

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Due to her participation on the January 6 panel and criticism of the former president, Cheney has been condemned by the Republican National Committee and is no longer accepted as a member of the Wyoming GOP. Cheney is running against four opponents in the August election, including Harriet Hageman, who has received Trump’s endorsement.

Although there hasn’t been any reputable polling for the GOP primary, a pro-Hageman group’s internal poll conducted in June revealed that 56 percent of respondents support the Trump-backed candidate, compared to 28 percent who said they would support Cheney.

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